Basisphilosophie » A look behind the veil of stats-based analysis"

/>Skip to main contentclockmenumore-arrownoyesBuffalo Rumblings homepageHorizontal - WhiteBuffalo Rumblingsa Buffalo Bills communityFollow Buffalo Rumblings online:Follow Buffalo Rumblings on TwitterFollow Buffalo Rumblings on FacebookFollow Buffalo Rumblings on InstagramLog in or sign upLog InSign UpSite searchSearchSearchBuffalo Rumblings main menuFanpostsFanshotsSectionsBillsOddsShopAboutMastheadCommunity GuidelinesStubHubMoreAll 321 blogs on Horizontal - WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections NewsNotesOpinionAnalysisDiscussionPodcastNFL DraftSalary CapA look into the Matrix; or how data nerds see the numbersNew Vontae Davis Jerseys 2019 ,18commentsA look behind the veil of stats-based analysisEDTShare this storyShare this on FacebookShare this on TwitterShareAll sharing optionsShareAll sharing options for:A look into the Matrix; or how data nerds see the numbersTwitterFacebookRedditPocketFlipboardEmailOne of the widest chasms in the realm of professional sports is the one between stats and the eye test. While the two sides can pass large chunks of time coexisting peacefully, there’s hell to pay when they don’t agree. As a self-professed data nerd and “person who writes things he’d like you to read” I felt it might be nice to take a minute during the slow time of the year to show you how I use data to show how smart and cool I am look at the world of football. <hr class="p-entry-hr" id="XvaqgP">If it isn’t on late night, ditch the top tenOne of the main uses of stats is to try to quantify how far apart teams or players are away from each other. The NFL has long thrived on the concept of parity and “any given Sunday.” With that in mind it’s nice to be able to tell if your team is in the pack or not. And if there’s one thing that’s an unreliable measure of how good a team is at something, it’s a top ten list. Here’s a perfect example.Here’s a chart of points scored per game (or “ppg”) in the 2018 regular season. The Atlanta Falcons are highlighted in red because they were the tenth-best team in this all-important metric. While it’s certainly better to be tenth best than eleventh or worse take a look at the Oakland Raiders. At 18.1 ppg they’re less than eight points behind Atlanta. Put another way, in an average game between the two teams it should only be decided by one score (touchdown and two-point conversion). Still not convinced that the top ten isn’t super meaningful? The league average was 23.4 ppg. That means the tenth-best team in the league was only 2.5 ppg better than perfectly average—less than a field goal per game. There are 16 teams within a field goal of perfectly average. Further considering that cluster of 16 teams, there’s less than a touchdown difference between the top of the pile and the bottom. Don’t get me wrong, a team’s standing in the top ten is still a good thing. The statistics-based view doesn’t negate that fact. Instead the statistics view tries to more precisely place against the rest of the league. Defining momentsOne of the bigger contributing factors in the age-old debate of “to math or not to math,” is the issue of defining measurements. Or rather, the lack of measurements being defined. This isn’t universal with statistics, but as a data nerd I know all too well that once we get going we try to tweak and refine measurements to improve accuracy. This leads us down rabbit holes that started at yards per game and ends in “ANY/A.” Let’s pick on myself for a moment. This is an extreme example but represents what I mean quite well. What you’re looking at is a small slice of the penalty-harm workbook. Information is pulled from the official play-by-play (“time” column to “information on the play”) into the columns to the right. The harm is automatically calculated. And this is only the data-dump page. The entirety of this data is pulled into pivot tables, which allows me to adjust the information I want to see. Penalty harm by phase of game? You got it. Yards negated by player? Not a problem. What can be a problem is that none of this is accessible. This page and many like it are never seen by the reader. The formula embedded in the cells is a ghost to everyone but me. I used to have a brief explanation in the penalty recap articles but it bogs down the narrative something fierce. So now you gotta ask if you don’t know how it’s calculated. Which bring me to the main point: Never hesitate to ask. There are a lot of really good stats out there that need an explanation. The bigger beauty is that you then know what the statistic is really measuring...and also its limitations. There are always limitations. One stat to rule them all, and on the scoreboard bind themHere’s the most important lesson that, in my opinion, everyone needs to see from time to time. There’s only one important stat at the end of the day and it’s called “the score.” Every other statistic and metric should only be considered an explanation until the final result is achieved. Because of course we do, we have an example. Looking at that chart is a lot like looking at a final score. No matter how you slice it Youth Tre’Davious White Jersey , the Buffalo Bills were the seventh-worst team in sacks during the 2018 season. In case you were wondering, the average was 39—so they weren’t too far below. “Slightly worse than average” is not where you’d like to be, though, especially in a measurement we all understand to have a fairly significant impact on the game. Stat nerds love to jump in and tell you “well, actually...” on stuff like this. I know I’ve done it to many of you. I’d apologize, but I’m not sorry in the least.So are the Bills bad at getting to the quarterback? Well, actually...they’re slightly above average, not below. Kind of. When it comes to sack efficiency, they’re just a tiny tick above the league average. How can they be above average yet obtain a below-average result, though? It’s because sacks are a team stat (like the score) while sack efficiency is purely a measurement of the defense and only on passing downs. If a team is getting blown out and it leads to an opponent running the ball more, then it leads to less opportunities for a sack. Or if teams are burning clock, or they routinely have short fields to work against, it leads to less plays to defend and also less opportunities for a sack. What it all really means is this: While the Buffalo Bills defense was on the field and facing passing situations they were alright at getting sacks. But as a team they really were kinda bad at it. <hr class="p-entry-hr" id="e40w7D">What all of this boils down to is that there are as many ways to enjoy the game as there are fans. Statistics can be an interesting bridge between what we see and the inner workings of the NFL. If you’re into that sort of thing, like I am, consider this particular article as an invitation to come explore with me. ORCHARD PARK Tre’Davious White Jersey Stitched , N.Y. (AP) — Frank Gore isn’t sure he would have signed with the Buffalo Bills this offseason if not for being coaxed into it by his long-time friend LeSean McCoy.Devin Singletary, meantime, could barely contain his initial excitement over the prospect of meeting Gore and McCoy in person upon being drafted in the third round by the Bills in April.Little did either anticipate they would be the ones taking over the primary running back duties heading into Buffalo’s season opener at the Jets on Sunday after McCoy was released last weekend.“He was one of the reasons why I did come. He talked to me and he wanted me to come here and compete with him,” Gore said of McCoy, who has since signed with Kansas City, where he is reunited with his former coach Andy Reid.“It was tough, but we also knew it was a business. I’m happy for him,” Gore added. “And I’m also happy for me and my teammates in our room that we get a chance to work together and compete, and help our team be successful.”Rather than share carries with the 31-year-old McCoy in a backfield that would’ve featured two of the NFL’s most productive players, the 36-year-old Gore is instead preparing to open his 15th season working with Singletary.And that’s fine with Gore.The NFL’s active leader in yards rushing not only spent much of the offseason mentoring the 21-year-old, but also knew of Singletary’s abilities when he was leading the nation in scoring during his sophomore season at Florida Atlantic in 2017.“Great kid, man. Very natural. He understands the game and works his behind off and listens,” said Gore, who was first made aware of Singletary by Florida Atlantic’s running backs coach, former NFLer Kevin Smith. “I’m rooting for him and also competing with him White Star Lotulelei Jerseys , trying to keep him hungry and get him better.”Singletary didn’t initially know what to make of McCoy being cut, before coming to the realization he’s in line for a far more expanded role.“I definitely didn’t see this coming,” Singletary said. “It shows that they believe in me. Now it’s time to see how it turns out.”Coach Sean McDermott hasn’t revealed his plans at running back, which will be rounded out with T.J. Yeldon, expected to play a role in third-down passing situations.What’s clear is how Gore and Singletary are being relied upon to boost a running attack that stagnated under McCoy and behind a patchwork offensive line this season.Gore has plenty to prove in coming off an injury-shortened season in which he played 14 games and finished with 722 yards rushing — his fewest since his rookie year. With 14,748 career yards rushing, Gore is 522 from passing Barry Sanders for third on the NFL list.The decision to release McCoy after four seasons in Buffalo eventually came down to Singletary’s development this offseason. Though undersized, the 5-foot-7, 200-pound player has been fearless in running up the middle and impressive in not going down after the first hit. More important, Singletary was adept in catching passes out of the backfield, something he wasn’t asked to do much in college.Singletary’s six catches in three preseason games matched his total last year, and included an 18-yard over-the-shoulder reception made in a 27-14 win over Carolina.“We knew he could run with the ball in his hands. I talked about his vision and his instincts and feel. I think it was when he checked the box on the passing game,” general manager Brandon Beane said, referring to what stood out about Singletary this summer.That went beyond Beane’s initial thoughts in drafting Singletary, referring to him as being “the funnest guy” he had scouted last year because of the player’s speed Star Lotulelei Jerseys 2019 , vision and shiftiness.“I wouldn’t call him a home-run hitter, but he can make guys miss in a phone booth,” Beane said of Singletary, who finished with 714 carries for 4,287 yards rushing and scored 67 touchdowns, including one receiving.Singletary drew comparisons to McCoy at college for having similar running styles. He’s also a big fan of Gore.“Frank is one of the greats,” Singletary said, recalling how Smith would have him watch film of Gore. “He used to put on Frank’s tapes just to show his contact balance, how he finds his way through cloudy situations, when there’s no hole there and how you’ve got to make something.”As for McCoy, he showed Singletary how to stay motivated.“You’ve got to come in and never get comfortable,” Singletary said. “I’ve never seen (McCoy) comfortable. He always came in and worked. And that’s definitely something I took from him.”